Your 2010 Seattle Mariners

I've looked everywhere but I cannot find my Mariners baseball cap. Fortunately, my little "Sweet Lu" is representing for me this opening day.

Just a few hours from the first game of the season. Seattle made some high profile moves much earlier in the off-season, and it was certainly looking like the Mariner's front office was "in it to win it". Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, and Milton Bradley were the major additions to the team. But as pre-season continued skeptics began asking again whether the offense would be good enough and the starting rotation go deep enough to make a run for a title in what could be a competitive division. Doubt and concern grew as Cliff Lee suffered an abdominal strain in spring training that has the potential to keep him out of the rotation till mid-May. Mariners fans were waiting to see if GM Jack Zdierenek had any surprise moves left before the season began in order to fill the offensive holes at first base, DH, and elsewhere in the infield; or perhaps to shore up the back end of the rotation with a better arm. Instead, we entered spring training with a mix of solid players and some big question marks.

Here is where I put my hope. The best 1-2 pitching punch in baseball: Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. Reports are that Lee is recovering fairly quickly from his strain, and that though he starts the season on the DL, he could be back as early as the end of April. Additionally, we have Erik Beddard recovering from elbow surgery and also progressing very quickly. If he comes back in form, we'll 3 starters each capable of staff aces. This becomes especially valuable in the postseason where the breaks in between divisional and league series sets us up to sweep our rivals, saving our back end of the rotation for clean up duty. And though there's a lot of skepticism about our offense, I like what this lineup has going for it. Ichiro and Chone Figgins are an incredible pair to lead off with. They get on base a lot and move around the bases quickly. We might not have much in the way of power hitters, but when you get fast guys on base often-- runs will score. I'm also of the mind that Milton Bradley has a lot of potential to bounce back from what was really not-all-that-bad of a season with the Cubs last year. The guy can still hit. If he stays healthy, sane, and avoids ejection-- I think he can still hit for avg and draw walks. Once again, the bullpen looks to be an underrated asset. And though it'll be hard to match the defensive numbers put up by last year's squad, once again this team is built around incredible defense that will help keep us in games even when our bats aren't so hot.

The big question marks and worry spots are still offensive in nature. A Ken Griffey Jr./Mike Sweeney Platoon at DH is a frightening thing. Both are fragile, older guys who each have a good chance of losing playing time to injury, and each will have to buck the trend of steep hitting decline in their age brackets. Similarly, with Casey Kotchman penciled in as the everyday 1st basemen, he hasn't yet shown himself to hit big league pitching with consistency. He strikes out too much, and doesn't seem to have the power bat you'd like from a first baseman. And finally, Ian Snell continues to struggle to find the strike zone. He remains something of a head case. Many say the potential is there to be a fine starter, but I'm just not all that impressed.

I think this team is built for a winning season, but it's hard to see them easily finishing ahead of Texas, the Angels, and even Oakland looks competitive. A few things will need to go right: Lee gets healthy quick, Griffey/Sweeney bucks the trend and hits productively inspite of their geriatric status, Kotchman breaks out with some power, Beddard comes back with that good placement and killer curveball, and Milton Bradley proves that last year was a fluke and he is still a solid hitter. If three or four of these things happen, we've got a good chance. If two or three happen, we've got an outside chance. And the possibility exists that all scenarios fail to play out and we lose 90 games. But its opening day and everybody starts out tied for first! This is an exciting team because there is so much that could go right and so much that could go wrong. 2008 was a huge disappointment, 2009 was a pleasant surprise, 2010 just has no predicting...

A third of the season played, half the games won.

It was getting pretty ugly for a while. The month of May was not kind to the Seattle Mariners as their offense got even worse and they dropped from first to third in the AL West. Adrienne Beltre continued a terrible hitting slump while Griffey's numbers trended downward. Russel Branyan and Ichiro had been the only decent hitters in the line up; the former crushing the ball the latter hitting consistently and more frequently with extra bases. The last time I wrote I argued that Beltre and Jose Lopez would not stay this bad forever, and they've finally seem to "caught fire". Consequentially, Seattle has gone on a nice little tear-- going 10-4 over the last two weeks and winning four series in a row. Conveniently, the Texas rangers have cooled off a little from their hot start and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim continue to struggle. That means with the Mariners now at .500, they're just 4.5 games back from Texas.

Pitching and defense have been great, you can't ask them to do any better. The team is 21-8 when they score four runs or more. Scoring runs is the trick. Like the Cubs, situational hitting has been dreadful. At one point in May, Seattle was 0-24 with runners in scoring position. Nothing says choke more than a stat like that. Yet, I remain cautiously hopeful if Beltre and Lopez continue to show improvement at the plate. I'd like to see Griffey hit a little more, but his offensive contributions are better than what his batting average would indicate. A better measure of a hitter's contribution is OPS: on base percentage + slugging. So with that in mind, before Griffey went on a mini slump at the end of May, his ability to draw walks and occasionally hit homers and doubles gave him an OPS of around .800-- which is a decent posting for your average major leaguer. Griffey should also get some credit for "smart" at bats. In the rare occasions he's got runners on-base, Griffey is often able to pull the ball down the right side or put it up in the air in the OF to move the runners over. So while I'd like to see him connect with the ball a little better, he's doing okay at contributing to the offense.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the team as we approach the All-Star break. How close will we have to be to the division leader to keep management from trading away our payroll before the deadline? As soon as it appears that we're falling out of contention, I wouldn't be surprised to see the M's shopping around Erik Beddard and Beltre to some contenders in exchange for some prospects. But for right now, the team is winning and that is the most exciting thing for a baseball fan.

The Chilly Double-Header

It was cold in the Cell last night. More than a few times the mercury dipped below 37. The previous night's game had been rained out, and Nicole was unable to join me for Tuesday afternoon, so I spent a good portion of the day down at the ball park by myself and despite the weather and the solitude, it was a fun evening.

I only caught the last 4 innings of Game 1, which ended up being a big disappointment as our replacement fifth starter did an amazing job of holding Chicago to just two hits over eight innings, but the Sox turned those hits into runs and Seattle couldn't put up more than one run to support their pitcher. Griffey hit a deep ball to right center that suffered an ill timed change in the wind--most nights that ball would have been an easy homer, but it bounced off the center field wall and he was stranded at 2nd base with no one behind him to hit him in. It was the kind of game exemplary of Seattle's strengths and weaknesses this season: excellent pitching and defense, not enough hitting through the lineup.

During the brief intermission between games I stood in the front row and watched "King Felix" warm up for what I expected to be another pitchers duel between Hernandez and Sox Ace John Danks. I was joined in the front row by a couple of men who were also taking pictures and admiring the M's pitcher, so I struck up a conversation with them about the Mariners and Felix Hernandez. They were visiting Chicago from Venezuela for some conference, so in my broken Spanish and their broken English we talked about the great Venezuelan players on the Mariners and throughout MLB.

Game two started off with a bang. Ichiro hits a great leadoff single, gets bunted over to 2nd, steals third, and gets hit home by Mike Sweeny's awkward blooper single. Its the way they've been scoring runs all year: speed and luck. With Felix pitching, it could have been enough, but the Mariners bats decided to come alive last night. Yuni Betancourt is an incredibly frustrating player-- he doesn't draw walks, strikes out a lot, hits into a lot of double plays, and plays terrible short-stop these days. He manages to put up a decent batting average, but because he can't play "smart" he doesn't help us win. Thus it was a pleasant surprise in the second inning with two on and a full count he put a fly ball just over the left field fence to tack on three more runs. After that Seattle kept on hitting, scoring five more runs and racking up 19 hits-- more than enough support for Felix who stuck out nine and held the Sox to just four hits. It was good to see some run production from Seattle. First baseman Russell Branyan went 5 for 5 with a couple of doubles. This guy has awesome power, and if he stays healthy and can keep making contact, Seattle will indeed have an offense capable of winning. As I've said many times, Adrian Beltre might be one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball, but he needs to start connecting and hitting with power again. Right now he's batting a paltry .167, and even with a golden glove, that won't cut it. Eventually folks like Endy Chavez are going to come back to earth after an uncharacteristic hot start, it would be a huge help to the team if Beltre starts hitting around that time. I like that Wlad Balentien is hitting well and Wakamatsu would be wise to keep platooning him against lefties for Griffey and Gutierrez.

For the second half of the last game I sat in front of a family visiting from Seattle. We enjoyed talking together about classic Seattle baseball and how exciting it was to have Jr. back. Though they were there to root for the Mariners, one of the girls had a big sign declaring her crush on Sox bench coach (and former Mariner) Joey Cora.

So the big question a lot of people are still asking, is this Seattle team legit? We're now nearly done with a month of baseball and they remain on top of AL west. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are in shambles right now with half their rotation and Vlad Guerrero on the DL, and Texas and Oakland are quite beatable. The circumstances are right for the Mariners to stay in contention. They've lucked out a little and they've won some games with "small ball", but the hitting will still need to improve in order to stay on top of the division. Manager Don Wakamatsu has Seattle bunting more often than any other team in the AL; and its worked so far, but the rate of return on continuing that strategy is declinging. If all you can do is bunt, then all the oposition has to do is play the infield in. Unless you can legitimately threaten with actual hits, Seattle will keep losing a lot of 2-1/1-0 ball games. If Branyan keeps hitting well, Griffey/Sweeny don't implode, and Beltre finally starts producing, it will not be hard to run away with the division.

Its Finally Here...

...opening day. It snowed here in Chicago last night and its a brisk 33 degrees today. Not really spring weather, but that's okay. Opening day is here. Much to Nicole's annoyance, from here on out I'll be spending a lot more time watching MLB Gameday on the computer, listening to WGN on the radio, and commandeering the remote for Baseball Tonight.

Most of us Seattle fans were duped last year when the 2007 Mariners managed to win 88 games and come in 2nd in our division, we thought the addition of Eric Bedard to the starting pitching would put us in contention for for the AL West title. Instead, we got an injury plagued pitching and a total offensive implosion which resulted in 101 losses, the second worst in baseball. This was a scenario worse than dead last, because this year's draft includes the most important prospect in decades: San Diego State's pitching phenom Stephen Strausburg. The guy has a 101 mph fastball and a wicked slider. He once struck out 23 batters in a game. I wouldn't be surprised if this summer he wasn't some team's number three or four starter. The Washington Nationals will have the first shot at him, but had we lost just two more games he could have been ours! We'll see what happens around midseason.

But what about this year? With a new GM and field manager has Seattle put together a better team than last years? Absolutely.

First off, defense: The acquisition of OFs Franklin Guitierez and Endy Chavez combined with Ichiro in right field means we have one of the best defensive outfields in MLB. Our number 4 and 5 starters Jarrod Washburn and Ryan Rowland-Smith are fly-ball pitchers. This outfield will help them win games that last year's outfield could not. There are still big defensive holes in the middle infield, particularly with Yunieski Betancourt at shortstop, but with Ronnie Cedeno as a legitimate starter on the bench it could put some pressure on Betancourt to either sharpen up his game or ride some pine. Last year Tampa Bay proved that defense and speed can get you to the World Series (of course, a big offensive year from Evan Longoria didn't hurt either).

Some Seattle fans are concerned that without power hitters in the outfield that this team won't be able to score runs, but I think subtle offensive upgrades we've made combined with some more speed on the basepaths from Guitierez and Chavez will keep this team competitive. I'd like to think we've made a big upgrade at first base this year by picking up Russ Branyan from Milwaukee. Because he couldn't get playing time from Prince Fielder the last couple of years, he doesn't have a lot of career numbers to brag about, but he hit a lot of homers this spring and almost anyone would be an upgrade Richie Sexson. Manager Don Wakumatsu has been working on playing "small ball" this spring. Kenji Johima is unlikely to be as bad as he was last year. Sure we'll miss Raul Ibanez's RBIs, but Griffey is likely to be a power upgrade over Jose Vidro in the DH spot and if Jose Lopez continues to improve his power and contact, this line-up could certainly produce runs.

If Eric Bedard stays healthy, the Mariners will have that 1-2 punch in their starting rotation that we hoped for last year. Felix Hernandez has shown flashes of brilliance in his young career, and we should hope that he continues to improve. I remember one game in particular last season when he struck out the heart of the Tiger's line up on 9 pitches. He's got the stuff to be a Cy Young winner. Carlos Silva was absolutely dreadful last year and did not look good this spring. One of the bright spots of last year was seeing the young Brandon Morrow get stretched out from the bullpen to become a starter. In his starting debut he 1-hit the Yankees through 6 innings, and I was glad to see another great starting pitcher in our rotation. Unfortunately, Morrow has type-1 diabetes and the stamina demands of starting has forced him to return to the bullpen. Morrow will be a great closer, but we are more in need of a great starter in the back half of the rotation. Aside from Morrow the bullpen doesn't have any superstar relievers, but they can all throw hard and there is plenty of competent relief arms in Tacoma to call up as the season goes on.

Finally, the bench has been greatly improved and that means more than some people might think. After cutting a bunch of the dead weight from last years team, the Mariners were basically sending a AAA team out on the field night after night to get slaughtered. GM Jack Zduriencik deserves kudos for cutting $20million out of the budget but building a team with better depth than last years. Cedeno can plug any holes in our infield, Chris Shelton would be a fine option at 1st base if Branyan is injured, and if Mike Sweeny isn't washed up he could serve as a fine pinch hitter.

The AL west might be a toss up again this year. I don't know anyone picking the Mariners to run away with it, the Angels are certainly still the favorites, but if all the pieces fall together we could see Seattle and Oakland contending late into the season. If at mid-season we aren't in second place, expect management to unload some of our best talent in their final year of contract (Beltre and Beddard) and watch the team fall to 3rd or 4th.

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In the NL central I think the Cubs are destined to dominate again this year. They might have been the best club in baseball last year, and they're almost certainly better this year with the addition of Milton Bradley. Defense is the Cubs only weakness. The can score runs in all kinds of ways, and they have an excellent rotation. Carlos Marmol will be as good a closer as Kerry Wood was. The trick is not choking in the first round of the playoffs three years in a row. You might be getting tired of hearing it, but this is the year. The Brewers are a fun team to watch, I hope they can win the Wild Card again this year. Then again, Albert Pujols and the Cards could always come up with some surprises too.

The AL Central is another "toss-up". Of course I like the Twins, but if Joe Mauer doesn't get healthy and stay healthy they could struggle to keep up with Cleaveland. The White Sox squeeked it out last year, but its hard to imagine lightening striking twice for a team that doesn't look any better on paper.

I was thrilled last season when Tampa Bay finally pushed past the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East--especially when you consider the Rays have the second lowest payroll in baseball and the NE teams have the two biggest! Rooting for the Rays again this year, though most people are picking the Yankees barring a meltdown from A-Rod after his offseason from hell.

Aside from that I got the Mets in the NL East and the Dodgers in the West. Even though last year was a miserable season to be a Seattle sports fan, the level of parity in baseball last year and this year makes for some excitement as "dark horse" teams keep just keep us guessing. As the saying goes, every team starts the season in first place.

The Kid

If I remember right, the very first baseball game I ever went to was when my grandpa took me to see the Bellingham Mariners. They were a single-A farm team for Seattle. I don't remember much of what happened at that game. We sat on the steel bleachers eating peanuts and my grandpa spent the game explaining to me what was happening and how the game was played, but he also talked a lot about this "Kid" that had been playing outfield for Bellingham earlier in the spring. He said this 18 year old right out of high school was dominating on the field and in the batters box. He said, "He'll be in the Major leagues soon, and he's going to be a superstar". Grandpa was right and for the next ten years all the baseball fans in Seattle and across the country were thrilled by a Kid who seemed destined for the Hall of Fame. Needless to say, the announcement that Ken Griffey Jr. will return to the Mariners this season has made me giddy as a school boy again!

No one will argue that Griffey has enviable career numbers, though his tenure in Cincinnati was less productive--certainly due to the significant injuries that hampered his performance. Some will look at the decline in his statistical production and consider his age (39) and say that signing with Seattle is a dumb move-- that he's going to decline even further and it'll rob playing time of younger up and coming players. While that's very possible, I'd argue that there's a good chance he can provide a good contribution to the team this year.

With the departure of Raul Ibanez, the team needs some power hitting in the middle of the line up. Of course, last year Jr. only hit 18 homers slugging a moderate .424 (which might not be Hall of Fame power, but only three hitters on the M's last year did better), and considering the standard decline of power hitters, that could be discouraging. On the other hand, we've come to learn that he had been playing with some discomfort in his knee again and that it has been rehabilitated in the off season. A lot of your musclebound power hitters (and juicers) use upper body strength to smash the ball, but Griffey has always relied on what we call "the sweet swing", and that starts in the legs. With a healthy knee, we can probably count on better HR production. It was only two years ago when he hit 30 homers. It'll also help to be playing in Safeco, where a short right field fence lends itself well to a lefty who can pull the ball. Also to consider is that where Griffey struggles the most is against lefty pitchers (he only hit .202 last year against LHP)-- his line against RHP is much better. If we can effectively platoon him in the DH/LF positions, you can expect his numbers to be better. The Cubs were able to do this effectively last year with Jim Edmonds (another aging former star). After a miserable start with the Padres (hitting .178) he was let go, but then the Cubs picked him up and Lou Pinnella played him against righties and Edmonds slugged .521 against them. Sometimes these old guys pull together one last big season late in their career, lets not assume Griffey can't do the same. Its unlikely to be an All-Star caliber season, maybe he'll hit a .270/.360/.460 line with 20 dingers; which is decent enough in its own right and when you consider the kind of hitters we put out there last year (Vidro, Sexson, Cairo, Wlad Balenetein)-- Griffey will at the very least be a wash, most likely an upgrade.

What about defense? Can he play the outfield anymore? Its obvious age and injury has taken a toll on his legs, so many people prefer to see Griffey solely in the DH role. I might argue that "range" isn't everything when it comes to playing outfield. Griffey didn't hit real great for the White Sox last year, but surprisingly one great play in the outfield helped the Sox squeak into the playoffs. With a 1-0 lead in the one game playoff against the Twins, Griffey threw a strike to A.J. Pierzinksi from the outfield to stop a third base runner from tagging up and scoring at home. All that to say, throwing accuracy should count for something in the outfield inspite of limited range. We have Endy Chavez slated to play LF right now. He's allegedly an amazing defender but a pretty mediocre hitter. The M's would do well to utilize him in late-inning substitutions on any day that Griffey plays OF. Griffey won't be terrible in the outfield, but the risk of injury says he should stick to DH as much as possible.

Finally, there are the "intangibles" of having Griffey back in Seattle. 2009 is a rebuilding year, we've got a lot of new young players to develop. Griffey has experience and leadership. He's a positive presence in the clubhouse. Younger players will benefit from his mentorship. Its also no secret there was a lot of discord in the clubhouse last year. Griffey is an affable and sensible player. His presence might help smooth things out a bit so focus can be put back on winning games and less on passing blame.

So the Kid might be a bit of an old man now, but after a miserable year of Seattle sports (the M's losing 101 games, the Seahawks settling at the bottom of the NFC west, the disappearance of the Sonics from the face of the earth), Griffey is a breath of fresh air. One of the greatest athletes to play in the city from one of the most exciting eras of sports in the city. Welcome back, #24.

Monday Morning QB

Football

The Seahawks did not have a good start to the season yesterday, getting blownout by the Bills 34-10. After Shawn Alexander's spectacular meltdown last year, Seattle fans hoped that a new running game would be the final missing piece to a great team. Instead the tandem attack of Julius Jones and Maurice Morris as running backs were pretty unremarkable. But the real challenge was that the passing game floundered with Hasselbeck only completing 17/41. It was bad enough when 2 of our starting receivers were out with injuries, but last year's touchdown leader and key return man Nate Burleson went out with an injury. That means we will possibly go weeks into the season without a single veteran in the receiving corps (the other wideouts yesterday had only four measly receptions between the three of them). The Hawks continue to have the advantage of playing in the threatless NFC west, but an injured Hasselback leading a rookie group of receivers does not look to be a powerful offense. Let's hope that Burleson, Engram, and Branch have quick recoveries... otherwise this season could be the end of our playoff run.

The biggest surprise from yesterday was the Bears upsetting the Colts. The Bears defense finally showed up to play like their reputation should indicate. Rookie RB Matt Forte played excellent, and while Kyle Orton doesn't razzle-dazzle with his quarterbacking, he's competent enough to convert some third downs and keep the offense on the field. For as bad as the Bears played last year and in the preseason, it will be interesting to see if this spark of great football continues and the Bears can actually contend in the NFC north.

Baseball

One of the few highlights of the Mariners season was this weekend's series against the Yankees. Relief pitcher Brandon Morrow was sent down to AAA to get stretched out to become a starter, and his time there wasn't real inspiring. But at his first major league start on Friday night he pitched a one-hitter through 7 2/3rd innings beating the Yankees. The Mariners took two of three from the Yankees and that all but eliminated New York from the post-season. Not too shabby, but my dream of a Bostonless playoff season seems to have slipped away.

The Cubs have been on an awful slide this week losing 7 of their last 8. Its been a team effort with the offense falling asleep (save for Saturday night's 14 run pounding) and the bullpen giving up a lot of runs (the cracks in the relief pitching I noticed at midseason are starting to show more). Last night Kerry Wood gave up a 2-run lead in the ninth, the night before three relievers gave up 6 runs in two innings. The Cubs still have a four game lead in the NL central. I expect the offense will shake this off and could still produce the best team in baseball, but the unreliability of the bullpen will make any playoff opponent a legitimate threat to the Cubs.

Linky Linky

I haven't had much to write about this week, so I thought I'd share a few things I read that caught my eye in the last few days.

1. Its hard to stop speculating about a cross-town series this October. Chi-Town would go nuts. It would be awesome.
   
2. Fleming Rutledge on "Blind Boys of Alabama and the Living Jesus"
3. Greg Boyd does a Philosophical review of The Dark Knight.
   
4. Baby ducks + Danger + Happy ending = "Awwwwwww..."
5. I suddenly don't feel so bad about my Bacon-Brat a few weeks ago.

Tonight is the Chicago Covenant Softball League Championship. Tuesday night was the divisional championship and the Seminary team beat Ravenswood Covenant in a dramatic contest that ended in a walk-off seventh inning win. Tonight we take on the surging Sojourner Covenant Church who are this year's Cinderella team. Go Sem Scholars!

Southside Baseball, continued

These are pictures from our baseball outing. Yep, I wore my Twins hat and somehow didn't get killed (just a few jeers)!

Southside Baseball

Nicole and I went down to the Cell last night for the first of a three game series: Sox vs Mariners. Its the first time all season the M's have been in town, thus my first time this year I've had a chance to see the M's live. As is often the case, Seattle lost badly: 13-5. When the M's played the Cubs last year in interleauge, we saw a number of Seattle fans at Wrigley. Not too many at the Cell last night--no doubt the difference being last year we were only a few games out of first, this year we're one of the worst in the league.

Going into the game I had tempered my expectations. With our season long finished, you need to start watching baseball for other reasons than just winning. I was interested in seeing our call-ups from Tacoma, Jeff Clement and Vlad Balentein, who both have notable power swings but are only batting in the low .200s. Both actually did pretty well tonight with Clement going 3-4 and Vlad ripping a double down the right field line to drive in two. Ichiro did his thang, putting down some blooper singles and running out an infield grounder for a single. Beltre went 0-5, continuing to under-impress us with his offense--but making a great leaping grab to rob Paul Konerko of a screaming line drive. I'm still waiting for Beltre to be the offenseive contribution he has the potential to be-- but the guy can play great 3b. The Mariners racked up 15 hits, but the power and the timing was missing leaving us only scoring 5 runs. The lead changed twice in the game, but pitching and infield defense did not come through for us. Yunieski Betancourt let no less than three easy grounders get by him for hits (Jose Lopez looked a little lame at second base also). At one time Yuni was considered one of the best defensive short stops in the league. I don't think its an overstatement to say that he is now among the worst. And Finally, the suckfest of the night was Jarrod Washburn. After pitching way above his talent level in June and July, he's come back down to earth-- giving up seven hits, two homers, and eight runs in 4 1/3 innings. To be fair, the White Sox havethe AL's best offense in a homer-happy park; but Washburn is still one of the least likeable people in the M's organization for his on-the-field hackery and his consistent shifting of blame to other players. We know now that the Twins had claimed him on waivers late last week, but the deal fell through. Congratulations Twins fans-- you dodged a bullet on that one.

Nicole wore her Twins cap and rooted for the Sox to lose-- but surprisingly she got less crap from the southsiders than I did for wearing my Mariner's cap. Though the AL central has remained tight most of the season, I'm putting my money that the Sox will end up on top. Right now Chicago has twice as big a run differential as Minnesota, and although Minnesota has a solid young team, the White Sox have a well built team that leads the league in home runs and slugging percentage while having a solid pitching staff on the other side of the ball. What is most exciting about the AL Central is that there is a very real possibility that if both the Twins and Sox play well-- and if the Rays continue to dominate the AL East-- for the first time in years we might have playoffs without the Yankees and the Red Sox. While it will pain my Minnesotan friends to hear this, I'm rooting for both the White Sox and the Twins to do well in order to put the overpaid/overhyped teams of the NE out of the playoffs. If both teams play well in these last six weeks, one will win the division and the other has a chance to knock Boston out of the wild card spot.

A Bright Spot in a Dismal Season

For the first time in a long time last night was a Mariners game to look forward to: the veteran 2-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana verses up and coming ace Felix Hernandez. Venezuela's pitching legend verses Venezuela's young ascending star. It was going to be an exciting pitchers duel, but instead something even more exciting happened. In his first AB Felix became the first AL pitcher in 37 years to hit a grand slam! No doubt a highlight in a year full of lowlights. Hernandez eventually left the game with an injury that now appears to be minor, but not before pitching five shutout innings of two-hit baseball. Despite the injury, Felix showed up to demonstrate that he is going to be the pitcher to beat in coming years. Step aside Santana.

Felix is the future of the Mariners organization. He's got nasty heat and a bevy of other pitches to employ. As he learns better how to mix it up, he has the ability to be the best pitcher in the major leagues. In his previous start against Detroit, he also pitched a two-hit shutout-- striking out the heart of the Tiger's line up in 9 pitches. I will not be surprised the morning I wake up to read "Hernandez Pitches a No-Hitter". In this dismal season where even our stars have been phoning it in, King Felix is about the only reason to keep following the Mariners.

Summer in the Greatest City in the World

It's a little presumptuous, but that's how Chicago is frequently referred to by the DJ on one of my local radio stations. Some days I can almost believe it. My summer work requires me to awake at wee early hours to drive downtown before heading out to farmer's markets. Since today is the longest day of the year, it also happens to be one of the earliest sunrises. Having grown up on the west coast I've seen the sun set over the ocean a million times but I've never seen the sun rise over a body of water. Living in Chicago I've never been up early enough to watch it rise over Lake Michigan, and my job wakes me up too early most days for it (about the time he sun actually rises I'm down inside a sub-zero underground freezer). Yet this morning I got to behold the awesome sight. As I drove the expressway towards downtown, early morning light made the northern half of the skyline silhouette while the southern half of the skyline was still in enough dark sky to be illuminated only by the light of office windows. Very cool.

The summer I interned at Lutheran General Hospital I often volunteered for overnight shifts. I remember one particularly long night where six different deaths required some ministry from me. After all the sadness and pain of the evening I went up to the 12th floor caferteria to get some coffee to push through my last 30 minutes on call. I looked out the panoramic window worn down by a night of death but grace gifted me with a vision of hope, the sunrise over the city. Even though many living light's had been extinguished through the night, the sun still rose the next day and each and everyday. Long after I and everyone I love has passed on the sun will still rise each morning. The universe will unfold as it should. We are but a small piece of a larger symphony. The sun rises every morning--that does not change. Mercy is new every morning. Life goes on.

Its a lot like the promise of changing seasons. Long winter has now become welcome summer. Though I spent most of my afternoon stuck in traffic, I got to listen to exciting baseball as the Cubs and Sox played an exciting game ending with a walk off home run. A near perfect 72 degrees meant driving through the city with my windows down. Driving up Lakeshore drive I admired the city's fantastic architecture to my left, and summer fun in Lincoln park to my right... and Lake Michicagan beyond that. When the humidity is not oppressive, summer in Chicago is a lot of fun. There are an abundance of festivals and concerts--many free. For our birthday Nicole and I took advantage of the great ethnic diversity of our city to find some new cuisine to try (Ethiopian food has some charms, but we weren't entirely won over). Still, our city affords us lots of opportunities for adventure. Heck, there's even abundant wildlife! Just today they've found an alligator in the Chicago river. I've heard multiple versions of a North Park legend about a python in the north branch, but this is new. After our recent cougar incident, nothing surprises me.

I'm finding that this "in-between time" of being finished with seminary but not yet placed in ministry is just fine for right now. It's a great time to be in Chicago.

Baseball Musings

I'm no longer angry or sad about the hapless Mariners. Occasionally its almost funny how bad they are. Seattle is the worst team in the AL and they've just been swept at home by the worst team in the NL. Its ridiculous. I'm still pretty confident that a lot of our players will somewhat revert to their median level of play and its possible to emerge from the MLB basement (Beltre has put a lot of line drives in play that just end up unlucky, Ichiro always does better the second half of the season than the first). Still, this team sucks. We need the rest of the season to start to retool: make some trades, releases, and call ups.

So how do we build a team for 2009 and beyond? The elements for great pitching are here. Though he's not as good as advertised, Eric Beddard is still a very good pitcher. He and Felix will remain a great 0ne-two punch. Brandon Morrow should be stretched out to become a starter and a few replacement level pitchers can fill out the end of the rotation. Still, its offense that needs major retooling the most. Now is probably the time to trade Raul Ibanez. His decent offense of the last couple seasons will fetch some good prospects before age catches up with him and he regresses. Ownership won't let go of Ichiro or Kenji Johima, so we need to start working Jeff Clement out at first base. Wlad Balentien is a decent defensive outfielder and I think his plate discipline will improve with experience. The power in his bat is worth sticking with him despite the fact he's below the mendoza line right now. Essentially what needs to happen is that we need to start dipping into the farm system better. The Mariners have the 9th highest payroll and the worst record in baseball and have the potential to become one of the first teams to spend over $100 million and lose 100 games. That's idiotic. There are great young players out there who can make this team competitive for years to come at a much better price efficiency.

Perhaps what needs to change most is management. The M's have made atrocious decisions putting together their team. Richie Sexson may be an overpaid washup, but he's no worse a hitter for avg than Miguel Cairo and he's certainly got more power. To win games you need to be able to put the best team out on the field that you can. Benching a bad player in order to play a worse player is not good. Last year I was of the mind that we should put Ibanez in at first since he's played the position before and he's terrible in the outfield (the other option was to DH him). Now they're working Jeremey Reed to perhaps play first?!? Reed would be a fine fourth outfielder for this team, but he's never going to be an everyday player again. If Johima is to remain the team catcher (another questionable decision), then it makes better sense to work Jeff Clement out at first. Reed has nowhere to go offensively but down, Clement seems to have a lot of potential to excel.

So yeah, I'm hoping/expecting Bill Bavasi and John McClaren to be out of a job by the All-Star break. Then perhaps we can start working on 2009. The efforts to maintain an illusion that we are still competitive this year are insulting. I think fans are smart enough to know that now is the time to retool and they'll come out to Safeco to catch a glimpse of new younger players who the future of the team will be built around.

In the meantime, I'm enjoying watching the Cubs much more. They are a fun team to watch in part because they produce runs in all kinds of ways and all throughout their line up. The Cubs bullpen is sometimes a little shaky but still competitive. I don't anticipate the Cubs to be this ridiculously dominant for the rest of the season, but they are certainly are impressive and fun to watch right now. Its a fun time to be a Chicago sports fan as this is the first time in years both baseball teams sit atop their division in June. If there is potential for a crosstown series this October, I will not be disappointed that we are still in Chicago this fall.

On the state of baseball as a whole, there is a good take over at bizofbaseball.com where a couple dozen baseball writers all come to a general conclusion that baseball is thriving right now with exciting competition. But I also share some of the concerns that the revenue boom is not good for the game. I love baseball, but it frustrates me that local governments are subsidizing new ballparks that are more and more designed to cater to the wealthy. It may end up being that cash will taint the game more than performance enhancing drugs ever did.

UPDATE: Just across the wires the Seattle Mariners have fired General Manager Bill Bavasi. It will be interesting to see who will soon be sent to the trading block and what the new outlook is for rebuilding this team.

Fight, Fight, Fight

Fight. You can only hope that last nights bench clearing brawl means the Mariners have finally hit bottom. How much farther is left to go? The worst record in the AL, 8 games out of first in the division. 1 run in 32 innings. Shutout twice in a row by mediocre pitching. A team batting average of .131 over the last 8 games. Zero runs scored to support your top two starting pitchers. When does the 2009 season start?

I grew up with a lot of bad Mariner teams, teams in last place. But those were teams without Cy Young candidates like Eric Bedard and Felix Hernandez. Those were teams without Ichiro, Beltre, and Ibanez. That was an era before a stacked farm system and some of the best international scouting in the world. Last season was a fun season to watch because you saw a mediocre team scrapping it out every night to stay in contention through August. On paper, this is a better team than that one... but this one is no fun to watch, and I have serious doubts about being anywhere near second place even by August.

If the Mariners finally do break out of this offensive rut (offensive in both senses of the word), what do they need to do? Its hard enough to be eight games behind out of first, but when you've got to fight two good teams ahead of you in your division its even harder (Angels and A's are leading the AL west). To have a shot, from here on out the Mariners need to be playing .600 ball. Thats hard to do. Even if they pull that out, it doesn't mean they win. They need to play .600 ball, hope the Atheletics regress to the mean, and pray that the Angels will have a meltdown at some point because if the Angels stay on pace to win 92 games this season, it would take .620 ballclub to catch up. Thats a laughable idea right now, being the only two teams in all of baseball winning like that is Boston and Arizona. Two weeks ago I advocated signing Griffey... or anyone to bring some offensive power. They could get both Griffey and Bonds right now and still be fighting an incredible up hill battle.

I'll keep watching and hope a fools hope, but in my own little fandom its now the Cubs, Whitesox, and Twins who'll keep my attention with serious competition.

Drastic Measures

The Mariners looked bad this week. They went 2-4 in a homestand against some less than impressive teams. They currently don't look like post-season contenders, and at this rate they don't even look like they'll be in contention for a post-season appearance. Currently the Mariners are four games out of first place. April was supposed to be the time when we build up a lead over a injured Angels team. So far we're bellow .500 playing a "soft schedule". That doesn't bode well for the long fight for a pennant. Last week I asked if it was too early to jump ship. I determined it was not, but this week I'm getting nervous because the major flaw of this team has only become more apparent: offense.

The starting pitching has been quality. Hernandez, Beddard, and Silva have all been stellar. But the offense hasn't supported them. Yesterday, Felix pitched a solid 7 innings holding the A's to just 2-hits, but the M's only scored two runs. It wasn't enough when the eighth inning rolled around and Felix started to run out of gas. Our middle relievers have been pretty inconsistent so far, so the A's took the lead. It was the exact scenario I predicted at the beginning of the season--our excellent pitchers are going to end up with a lot of "no decisions" because of lousy run support.

On a side note, I'm beginning to question some of what passes for baseball orthodoxy when it comes to "the closer". J.J. Putz is our best relief pitcher, leading the league in saves last season, the guy has great control and quite the heater. It seems to be an undisputed rule that a pitcher like that is there to only get three outs in the final inning. Why exactly does it have to be that way? What is stopping the manager from calling up Putz to try and go an inning and 2/3rds when the game is on the line?

Anyways, the real problem is offense. So what to do? If this team really wants to compete, then its time to stop waiting around hoping that our "black hole" in the 5-6-7-8 spots will turn around. We need some upgrades. Benching Jose Vidro (batting .195) was a start, but we also have Brad Wilkerson in RF hitting an even worse .181. I think an easy move to make is to bring up Jeff Clement from AAA Tacoma where he's crushing the ball in a pitcher friendly park. Put in Clement at DH. But what about RF?

Maybe its time to bring back the most beloved Mariner of all time? One of the greatest to play the game: Ken Griffey Jr. Last year when the Reds played in Seattle for interleague games, he was greeted with an unprecedented excitement. After the game he said in passing that he would love to finish his career back in Seattle. If the Mariners organization is serious about competing, why not put up the money to bring back our best? Before the season started some argued that it would make plenty of sense for Seattle to try and pick up Barry Bonds, but the stain of his steroid use would not be worth the runs produced (in addition to being toxic personality in the clubhouse). Griffey is the healthy alternative in every way.

The plain truth is that the current roster is not sufficient. If the Mariners shelled out big prospects and big cash for starting pitchers, why not make the effort to upgrade a very poor offense? Bring back Griffey.

Cliff Diving

Time for another weekly Mariners baseball analysis. It breaks down into good news and bad news.

GOOD:

1. The Mariners have won 3 out of 4 series so far this season. Yet seemingly defying logic, they are sub-.500. Do the math and it does add up. See the silver lining.
2. The Mariners won their first series against division rival Angels.
   
3. Raul Ibanez is on fire. He leads the Major Leagues in extra-base hits. He's the AL player of the week. He is providing a lot of the RBIs for the team.
4. Richie Sexson doesn't suck so bad. He's drawing a lot of walks. He's not batting super great, but he's not the black hole he was last year.
5. Carlos Silva is so far better than I expected.

BAD:

1. The Mariners we're spanked 10-5 last night by the Angels.
2. Erik Beddard missed yesterday's start with a bad hip. If our staff ace is going to the DL, then the costly trade of super-prospect Adam Jones, our best middle reliever George Sherill, and three great pitching prospects will suddenly seem as stupid as many people feared.
3. Adrian Beltre missed yesterday's game with hamstring problems. If both Beddard and Beltre are added to the DL, that means three of our five best players (Beddard, Felix Hernandez, Ichiro, J.J. Putz, Beltre) will be out of commission. It'll be hard to keep winning games in this state.
4. Erik O'Flattery, the situational lefty, has shown himself incapable of getting lefties out. That's his job. The word is this morning he's going down to AA for a while to get his head back on straight.
   

Where does that leave the team? Currently just 2-games out of first, and its not really expected that Oakland will hang on to first place for long. Compare the good and the bad and you'll see good outnumbers bad, and bad is only as bad as it looks if its truly is the worst case scenario. Beltre's injury doesn't sound too bad, Putz is allegedly recovering nicely from his. There are enough good pitchers in the Mariners farm system to easily replace O'Flattery.

I'd say this, if Beddard can get healthy soon there is no reason to panic over yesterday's big loss. The return of J.J. Putz will be a boost, and if the batters keep their good plate discipline, offense will start scoring more and more runs. We've got a lot of baseball still to play and while Seattle doesn't yet look like easy favorites for the division, they are by no means a bad team. In fact, most teams in the Major Leagues are only 2 or less games above or bellow .500--its called the beginning of the season. We're far from panic mode right now. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.

What Makes Milwaukee Famous...

...makes a loser out of me.

After church yesterday Nicole and I made our way to Milwaukee to go see the Brewers take on the San Fransisco Giants. The Brewers shut out the hapless Giants, 7-0. The Brewers have a pretty good offense, but I think the score more reflects the Giants ineptitude. They're as bad as the press says they are. Seriously, look for SF to lose more than 100 games this year.

A week into the regular season has been somewhat disappointing for the Mariners. Erik Beddard's debut was fine, but not stellar. Felix Hernandez looked good as did Carlos Silva. The biggest disappointments are closer J.J. Putz going to the 15-day DL and poor offensive production. The one silver lining is the plate discipline the hitters have shown, drawing a lot of walks. Still, there isn't enough hitting deep in the line up--particularly impotent are Jose Vidro and Brad Wilkerson going 1-16 so far this season.

So at 2-4, dropping three to Baltimore, Is it time for Mariners fans to jump ship? Not yet. Detroit, Boston, and the Yankees have all been humbled by mediocre teams this week, but no one is doubting them as contenders. Maybe if we go 4-8 its time to start panicking. Until then, lets hope the bats start firing up.

Check out Nicole's helmet of "Cheese Fries". We call that artery cloggin goodness.

Opening Day

Hooray for opening day! Though miserable late March weather here in Chicago has got me down, the arrival of real baseball will pick me up. When spring training started I expressed cautious optimism for the Mariners this season. Big pitching upgrades despite a mediocre offense would have put us in contention with the Angels for the AL West pennant. Now that the regular season is almost here, my optimism is up slightly--but not for anything that the Mariners have done. Half the Angels' starting rotation has struggled to stay healthy this spring. Both Lackey and Escobar could be on the DL till June, which might be enough time for the M's to build up a lead that the Angels' will struggle to overcome.

Still, I'm giving the Mariners tenuous hopes. The offense still scares me. The little power we have in the lineup is woefully inconsistent (Ibanez and even more so Richie Sexson). And while we have arguably the best closer in baseball, we shipped off our best middle reliever to Baltimore in the infamous Adam Jones trade. Without an offense able to run up the score, watch the M's drop a lot of games in the 8th inning.

In order to win this thing there are key places where the cards will have to fall right. Adrian Beltre needs to live into his potential. We've seen glimpses of his power before. Secondly, we need Richie Sexson to avoid another meltdown. Last year the Mariners had an above average team batting average, but did not score enough runs because there was no power in the middle of the line-up. Too many runners left on base. If the offense can produce, this will be a fun season to watch.

If the Mariners do disappoint, at least I'll be able to enjoy the Cubs this season. They're set up pretty well in both pitching and hitting; and their outfield defense will improve with the arrival of Fukudome. I think it'll be another race to the finish in the NL Central this year. The Chicago papers seem to think the Cubs will run away with it, but I think the Brewers could stay in it through August.

The AL central will be another fun division to watch. Cleaveland is an all around excellent team, but the Detroit Tigers have one of the most imposing offenses in all of Baseball. Sorry Minnesota--your division is too good this year, but at least Kansas City guarantees you won't last.

I don't like to acknowledge the AL East and I'm not very good with the rest of the National League, but I'll make some guesses anyway:

AL EAST:
1. Boston
2. New York
3. Tampa Bay
4. Toronto
5. Baltimore

AL CENTRAL:
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
5. Kansas City

AL WEST:
1. Seattle
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland
4. Texas

AL WILDCARD: I really wanna say Cleveland, but it'll likely go to whoever doesn't win AL East.

NL EAST:
1. New York
2. Philadelphia
3. Atlanta
4. Washington
5. Florida

NL CENTRAL:
1. Chicago
2. Milwaukee
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. Houston
6. St. Louis

NL WEST:
1. Los Angeles
2. Arizona
3. Colorado
4. San Diego
5. San Fransisco

NL WILDCARD: Milwaukee

Spring Fling

Suffering what has been a long winter in more ways than one, I finally heard good noise this morning. Birds chirping. Snow melting, "drip, drip, drip..." Soon I will hear those wonderful sounds that truly initiate the rite of spring; the crack of the bat, the sound of a ball and glove. Baseball season is nearly here. In fact, today is the first time in 2008 that the Mariners take the field to play another team. The annual charity game between San Diego and Seattle.

I have some cautious hopes for this coming season. The Mariners have seriously upgraded their pitching with the addition of Erik Beddard and Carlos Silva to the starting line up, but it came with the high cost of five of our best prospects--including Adam Jones who has big potential to be an offensive power house (in AAA Tacoma he was batting .317 on pace to hit 50 homers before the M's called him up to ride the pine for the rest of last season). Thats what made me nervous. The Mariners offense is likely going to slightly decline this season, Jones would have been a very helpful addition to the line-up. Many believe that last season the Mariners over-performed with the tallent they had but still finished 6 games behind the Angels. The word among some is that even with a powerhouse pitching staff we'll be unable to compete with the Angels for a pennant. But thats why we play the game right? There are enough variables in baseball that keep the game interesting, and last season we were in the hunt all the way till late August. A great pitching staff will take us far, but we'll need some career years out of the offense to take us to the post-season. Here's hoping. Go Mariners!